Folks, thanks for your great efforts in this thread. There's a lot of cool stuff down there! Now, if we just knew where Dean was going...so, continue linking to maps (esp. of Cantarell/Jack/Yucatan, but Texas and LA too), oil maps, NG maps, LNG stations, refinery maps, pipeline maps, shipping lanes, rig maps, news stories, weather, track predictions, strategic resources, and all that other stuff in this comment thread. Then I'll go through and start aggregating those for what looks more and more like it will be a very busy week next week. Ideas or assistance are always welcome. (New post on Dean as of 20:50 EDT 8/19 up top.)

Part I- Texas Myths

Like Cindy Crawford, I have done quite a bit of modeling in my career. However, mine has been in front of a computer. There are various types of models. They can be empirical, such that you curve fit data without having a clear explanation of the underlying mechanisms. Or they can be theoretical, in which the system is modeled according to the governing scientific principles and mathematical equations.

However, one thing is critical to keep in mind. If you are going to use the model for forecasting, the model must be tested. Testing the model is called “validation”, or sometimes “back-casting.” This involves feeding the model real data, and observing how well the predictions match up with the observations. If the predictions match up on a consistent basis, and any large variations are explainable, you have the makings of a predictive model. If you have not validated your model, or if you have attempted to validate it and found that the predictions were inconsistent, the model should be used with caution (if at all). In this essay I have done some back-casts on the Hubbert Linearization (HL) model and attempted to use it to make predictions using historical data.

Below the fold, however, I am going to repeat, with a little update, the post where I described what carbon dioxide injection can do to an existing oil well, and that itself followed an earlier post. These were pre-cursors to what later became the weekend techie talks, and these really relate to those, and from now on I will include this post in that listing. Since the topic largely relates to oilwell production, the listing this week will be for those sites. For those new to the site, on most weekends (though not next week) I will post a simplified explanation of one aspect of fossil energy extraction. So far we have been covering coal this year, after covering aspects of oil and gas production last year.

Carbon dioxide injection is a current DOE program for enhancing oil recovery from an older oil reservoir that has already produced the bulk of the primary oil that it will yield. Just recently Glencoe have started injection in central Alberta, and though the OGJ article on this is behind their wall, a short quote:

Glencoe Resources Ltd., private Calgary independent, is using the gas to improve recovery of primarily light oil from multiple formations in several depleted oil fields about 100 miles north-northeast of Calgary.

The company hopes to boost the recovery factor to as high as 40% from 10-20%. All of the formations are deeper than 1,300 m.

Glencoe has long-term agreements to purchase CO2 from two industrial plants. It operates about 50 miles of CO2 pipelines and has begun injecting gas from the MEGlobal Canada Inc. plant at Prentiss. A second CO2 separation facility being built near the NOVA Chemicals Corp. petrochemical plant is to go into service in early 2006.

The original post related to cleaning up after elephants*, and was written during the time when I frequently compared Saudi Arabia to a sandwich shop (sorry but no-one every noticed the pun!)