The Oil Drum: Europe

The November 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.55 MB, 24 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids production from January 2004 to October 2008.

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email adress and selecting the oilwatch monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The October 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 24 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids production from January 2004 to September 2008.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

We all know that oil prices are lower than they were in the recent past because supply is greater than demand. In fact, OPEC oil ministers are meeting this week to try to fix supply, so it will be more in line with demand.

All of this seems a little strange, though. We are going into the winter months, when demand for oil normally rises because many people around the world heat their homes with oil. We are using somewhat less gasoline in the United States, but apart from the hurricane disruptions, not very much less than earlier this year. While we are going into a recession, it doesn't seem to have hit with full force yet. What other factors may be involved in the current lower prices? In this post, I will discuss factors besides those we usually think of as supply and demand that may be involved.

Figure 1. EIA Chart of WTI oil spot prices - One measure of oil price

The August 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.34 MB, 26 pp). In this edition I have added more demand, oil stock and production revision data.

Figure 1 - OECD crude oil stocks from January 2002 to June 2008.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The July 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.34 MB, 22 pp). In this edition I have added biofuels, monthly production revision charts and a barrel to BTU conversion section.

Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production excluding biofuels January 2004 - May 2008

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

This is an update on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Database maintained by  the Oil Megaprojects task force  (Ace, Stuart Staniford, myself and many others). The database contains now more than 425 separate entries and is growing everyday. Despite the database growth, the outcome seems to become more pessimistic with time. The derived net new capacity (i.e. once depletion from existing production is included) is around 1 mbpd until 2010 with a jump at 2 mbpd in 2008 after which depletion may dominate.

The June 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 21 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - May 2008

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

We've heard all sorts of different ideas on how to ease the pain at the pump this Summer for motorists. The Bush administration has argued for OPEC to increase production and Congress to ease restrictions on drilling. In reply Congress wants to sue OPEC over high prices and tax oil company's windfall profits. Senators Clinton and McCain have called for holiday for the Federal gas tax. All of these various ideas have made a lot of headlines, but none of this has done a drop of good so far.

More long term, price induced demand destruction will take hold and people are making better decisions factoring in oil price - they are buying smaller cars and not snapping up McMansions in the hinterland, but with oil near $140/barrel right now what's the short term answer?

The secret answer to curbing high oil prices in a supply constrained world that no one seems to be talking about is for buyers to go on strike. And no, I'm not talking about a meaningless "Don't fill up on this day" but keep driving.

My back of the envelope estimate is that if there were a concerted effort by the major economies (hello G8 ministers meeting in Japan) to have demand pulled back sharply (10-15%) over the Summer, we could see oil prices go down fairly rapidly.

What prospects do people think there is of it? Would it be politically feasible? How much would demand need to decline to make a substantial impact of oil prices?

(New readers, click "there's more" below for the whole article...)

Global Total Liquids production and oil price, January 2002 to present. Production data from the IEA, data files supplied by Rembrandt Koppelaar. Monthly average WTI oil prices from Economagic.

With oil reaching $135 / barrel, Oil Drum readership exceeding 30,000 unique visitors per day and many wild stories circulating in the MSM as to why oil prices are so high this post strives to explain why oil prices are rising exponentially:

• Supply and demand
• Decline of older fields
• Declining net energy and energy density
• New mega-projects
• OPEC spare capacity
• Peak exports

The May 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.15 MB, 21 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - April 2008

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.