(Welcome: we are now on a later and more updated thread, which can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4525 NB: you may want to just go the front page (it will be post #1 or #2) to get to the most recent thread: http://theoildrum.com ...)

(all the maps and models moved under the fold to conserve bandwidth...scroll down)

Updated 9/12 2300 EDT--next update in the morning when we know more about where and how much power/wind was involved. Hurricane Ike's current track currently is headed directly for Houston/Galveston and is expected by the National Hurricane Center to be Category 2 (or perhaps a 3) at a late Friday/early Saturday am landfall, which remains in striking distance of over 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (A little perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL)).

The concern now is the where of landfall. If the storm continues further west before turning (see Chuck's update below), then Texas City/Baytown will be in a very bad place, and that's >1MMBBL all by itself. The next two maps represent the current NHC track (the further "left" the storm goes the worse it is for TX City and Baytown, note red storm surge in this track, Baytown is at the back of the bay) and the GFDL track below...as of this update the eye was wobbling to the left of the NHC track, which isn't a good thing for Texas City.

(all the maps and models moved under the fold to conserve bandwidth...scroll down)