The Oil Drum: Europe

This is a guest article by Dudley Stark, Reader in Mathematics and Probability in the School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary, University of London.

Bentley introduced the following model of oil production on page 204 of Global oil & gas depletion:an overview, and it is dicussed in the book The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan. This posting is meant to explain his model and some results I obtained for it. Consider the following oil production curve:

It rises quickly to it's peak at time t=1 and decreases slowly until no oil is produced at time t=6. The idea is that the natural pressure of the oil field causes rapid production initially, after which decline is more gradual. Before and after the peak the curve is linear, so it looks like a triangle.

This is a guest post by WebHubbleTelescope.

In school, we used to do horrendously difficult mathematical "word" problems routinely. I remember occasionally getting one right, but more often ended up punting on the problem, and then waiting for the teacher to explain the solution in all its elegant simplicity. Of course, just about every real-world problem contains inherent ambiguities and incomplete information. So we rarely get to see the elegant solution in our day-to-day work life. Sometimes we get lucky and nail a problem, but in the majority of cases, we eventually resort to creating a limited model of the problem domain and deal with that.

The problem that I have recently wrestled with has to do with predicting future oil discoveries based on historical dynamics. Ideally, I want to reduce it to a solution that has the elegance of a word problem, and not have to deal with messy economic and geologic factors that would quickly turn it into a rat's nest of complexity. Call me an optimist in this regard, but my intuition tells me that the solution remains as simple as ... finding needles in a haystack.