It seems relevant to be talking a little about refineries since the latest ASPO-USA newsletter has a piece by Tom Standing about the dangers of including all produced hydrocarbon liquids into the total of oil products available.  As he points out the CERA study, that we have discussed earlier includes Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) and Condensate in their report that production of "petroleum liquids" will increase in volume by 16 mbd between 2004 and 2010.  Forgoing the reality of that increase for a moment, Tom points out that there are some problems with including the Condensate and NGL in the supply, particularly as it relates to transportation needs.

Gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels consist of hydrocarbon molecules with roughly 8 to 16 carbon atoms. This size range keeps fuels within the specification for vapor pressure, but light enough to be readily ignited.
Condensate is a much lighter and more volatile liquid. It frequently is a co-product in natural gas fields, but also appears in some oil fields. Its molecules may be as large as 12 carbon atoms or as small as 4 (butane). The heavier end of condensate (higher boiling temperatures) can be blended into transportation fuels. But the light, volatile end must be used sparingly to keep within the specification for vapor pressure.
Natural gas liquids consist mostly of propane and butane (3 and 4 carbon atoms) with some ethane (C2H6). NGL is too volatile for blending into transportation fuels.

His comment reminded me of the village in South-West Scotland where my grandfather was the village blacksmith.  The impact of oil is such that this attractive  little community has changed from a farming village to a place where the houses are largely owned as vacation homes, and the locals are no longer able to afford to live there.  The local economy also suffered through mad cow and foot and mouth diseases, and thus the small, self-sufficient community of my youth (with the baker at the bottom of the street) has gone, and the skill levels largely with it. When I was a kid we harvested peat to heat the house, now they use gas.

Today's energy headlines are focusing on the announcement, by Jeffrey Rubin that conventional crude peaked in 2004, leaving the increased demand to be met by Deepwater and NGL increases, as the ASPO Ireland predictive curve suggests on page 2 of the current newsletter.  Currently China is anticipating 8.5 - 9% growth with major investments in energy and transport. US demand is anticipated to increase this year, and by some magic apparently US Gulf production is going to return to at least pre-Hurricane levels despite the loss of rigs and platforms that it will never be economic (according to those that know and have commented here) to re-establish. There is still 400,000 bd of oil and 1.8 bcf of gas that has not been restored.

(You should also note that ASPO USA is starting a weekly publication to overview issues as an e-mail, and the address to send for a copy should be posted on their website today.)