Stories tagged with "investing"

Updated Corn Ethanol Economics

Executive Summary: The current cost to produce a gallon of ethanol is approximately $3/gal. The current price of ethanol is $2.86/gal, which explains why ethanol producers are shutting down. If corn and natural gas prices remain high, I think ethanol has to rise to something like $3.40-$3.60/gal to make it worthwhile to ethanol producers. So, if I was a commmodities investor, I would probably go long ethanol right now. The only risk factors I can see - given that there is a mandated (and rising) demand for ethanol - is if corn or natural gas prices collapse. The other remote possibility is that that mandate is repealed, but I don't see that happening.

Book Review: Profit from the Peak

Profit from the Peak by Brian Hicks and Chris Nelder

One of the threats from peak oil is the potential for financial ruin as oil prices run up. If you were invested in airline or automotive stocks through the recent run up in oil prices, you have probably seen those investments lose a lot of value. If, on the other hand, you were invested in oil futures, oil companies, or oil field service companies - you have probably done well even as the overall stock market slumped. The idea of profiting from the peak - an event that is likely to cause misery for those who are least prepared - may seem an odd combination. It almost feels like "Profit from Homelessness." But the reality is that unless you understand how energy prices affect the prospects of various sectors, you are placing yourself at a financial disadvantage.

Thus Profit from the Peak - the new book co-authored by my friend Chris Nelder - was destined to spark a lot of interest. Chris and I agree on most things energy-related, but we do also have some areas of sharp disagreement. In this review, I will explain what I liked about the book, but I will also detail my differences. Consider this a partial review, and a partial commentary on some of the particular topics in the book. However, my comments, and anything posted here at The Oil Drum, should never be construed as investment advice.

Australia's Peak Oil Billionaire

Alan Kohler of the Business Spectator's "KGB Report" has an interesting column on an Australian fund manager, Phil Matthews, who has apparently become a billionaire after betting big on peak oil. The KGB boys seem to have become peak oil believers, with Robert Gottliebson also writing a column on peak oil - "Peak Oil Gathers Steam".

Phil Mathews, the Sydney-based fund manager nominated by Barron’s as the best performing manager in the world, seems to have made a billion dollars in May alone from oil futures. It looks like he is now personally worth as much as $2 billion as a result of his incredible oil bet.

U.S. Oil and Gasoline Import Statistics

I actually started on this post about a year ago, and forgot about it until recently. Here I provide 2007 numbers on the sources for oil and gasoline imports into the U.S., courtesy of the Energy Information Administration.

For 2007, the Top 10 exporters of finished gasoline to the U.S. in million barrels were:

The Bet

While I won my $1,000 bet on oil prices by a whisker, I know a lot were rooting against me. They should be happy to know that my bad karma is not going to allow me to keep the money. So, the lesson I learned years ago is reinforced: Don't bet.



(*Ed. note: Robert really did miss by a whisker - one trading day - front month crude touched $100 today)