Where is our gasoline and diesel supply headed? Even before Ike hit, quite a few areas of the US were starting to see gasoline shortages. The impact of Ike can only make shortages worse. Most likely, it will take refineries at least a week or two to get production back to normal levels after a storm of this type, considering the impacts of electrical outages and flooding. In this article, I will examine some of the issues that seem to be involved. Based on my analysis, fuel supply shortages are likely to last well into October, and are likely to get considerably worse before they get better.

Insight 1. Even before Hurricane Ike hit, inventories were very low.

According to EIA data, gasoline inventories the week that Hurricane Gustav hit were the lowest that they had been since 2000, amounting to 187.9 million barrels, or about 21 days supply. Quite a bit of this inventory is needed just to keep the pipelines filled. EIA does not publish information as to how far inventories need to drop before we start seeing outages, but it is clear that we have now reached the point where shortages are developing.

(Welcome: we are now on a later and more updated thread, which can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4525 NB: you may want to just go the front page (it will be post #1 or #2) to get to the most recent thread: http://theoildrum.com ...)

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Updated 9/12 2300 EDT--next update in the morning when we know more about where and how much power/wind was involved. Hurricane Ike's current track currently is headed directly for Houston/Galveston and is expected by the National Hurricane Center to be Category 2 (or perhaps a 3) at a late Friday/early Saturday am landfall, which remains in striking distance of over 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (A little perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL)).

The concern now is the where of landfall. If the storm continues further west before turning (see Chuck's update below), then Texas City/Baytown will be in a very bad place, and that's >1MMBBL all by itself. The next two maps represent the current NHC track (the further "left" the storm goes the worse it is for TX City and Baytown, note red storm surge in this track, Baytown is at the back of the bay) and the GFDL track below...as of this update the eye was wobbling to the left of the NHC track, which isn't a good thing for Texas City.

(all the maps and models moved under the fold to conserve bandwidth...scroll down)

(Welcome: we are now on a later and more updated thread, which can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4525 NB: you may want to just go the front page (it will be post #1 or #2) to get to the most recent thread: http://theoildrum.com ...)

Hurricane Ike's current track predicts landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston, but has been moving northwards. Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (Perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). Also, the MMS reported Wednesday that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.)

Hurricane Gustav is now past, and we are finally starting to discover what the damage really is. One of the big problems is electricity. There are other issues, including those about infrastructure, that we are only discovering. Let us know what you are finding out.

Darkness and Frustration Replace Fear

The state's power grid sustained massive damage from Hurricane Gustav, officials say, and it could be weeks before all of it is repaired. Frustrated motorists poured back into the state hoping to return home, only to be turned back at checkpoints on all the major highways. Many grew frustrated as they roamed the state like gypsies or sat in motels they could scarcely afford, their cash running low and no way to get more.

"No power, no tissue, no phone, and the lady just came to collect the rent," said elementary school teacher Shondrelle Paul, who with her 11-month-old baby and sister were holed up at the Budget Inn in Gonzales, La. "Money is getting thin."

Across the state, more than 1 million people were without electricity, which meant gas stations were unable to pump fuel, ATMs could not dispense money and restaurants could not open to feed people still unable to return home. Communication was made difficult by spotty cellular and Internet service.

Dozens of hospitals were still running on generator power, several without air conditioning, and there were fears that hundreds of patients might have to be evacuated in the next few days. Only one hospital in New Orleans had the capacity to provide dialysis — though all but one were up and running — and two in the Alexandria area were running low on drinking water.