Hurricane Gustav has brushed by the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), where 1.2 million barrels of oil per day is offloaded from supertankers. Here is the recent trajectory of Gustav superimposed on a map of the LOOP area, including Port Fourchon, also of critical importance to the production of oil from the Gulf of Mexico.

This is a guest post by Roger Conner Jr., known on TOD as ThatsItimout.

(Throughout, all headlines in all caps are mine, to help structure the content of the remarks, extracted from the following speeches. Links are provided so that the original remarks and slides can be viewed in entirety by the reader)

Presentation by Dr. Nimat B. Abu Al-Soof, Upstream Oil Industry Analyst, Secretariat, to the OPEC-organized session "The Petroleum Industry: New Realities Ahead?", at the Offshore Technology Conference 2007, Houston, Texas, 30 April - 3 May.

http://www.opec.org/opecna/Speeches/2007/OPECSpareCapacity.htm

If we look at the future, however, the issue of security of demand, which is intrinsically linked to the issue of security of supply, is of very real concern. Without confidence that there will be demand for OPEC oil, the incentive to undertake investment will also be reduced because of concerns that this will lead to large levels of unused capacity and, in turn, to downward pressures on oil prices.

This would result in huge revenue losses and OPEC Member Countries, as developing countries with strong competing needs for financial resources, would be adversely affected in terms of available resources for education, healthcare and infrastructure.

[editor's note, by Dave Cohen] Fellow TOD contributor Bubba is co-author of this report. He is an industry insider. It seemed important for those of us concerned about peak oil to respond to the Jack-2 test well result and all the publicity it has spawned. I also had conversations about this piece with Byron King at Whiskey And Gunpowder. Byron writes frequently about peak oil issues. I take full responsibility for this post's contents since I did the final editing.

With the successful test drilling of Jack-2 in the ultra deepwater Gulf of Mexico, there has been a media blitz proclaiming the good news. The "peak oil" theory is under attack. From Business Week's September 7, 2006 article Plenty of Oil--Just Drill Deeper The discovery of reserves in the Gulf of Mexico means supply isn't topping out, we learn

You can tune out all the scare talk about Peak Oil for a while--probably a long while. Peak Oil is the theory, on the verge of becoming conventional wisdom, that the world's petroleum supply is topping out and will not be able to meet global demand soaring along with the economies of China and India. But a successful test in a mammoth field deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico, announced on Sept. 5 by Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), and Norway's Statoil (STO), should help put that scary scenario on hold for decades....

Cambridge Energy Research Associates predicts world oil and natural gas liquids capacity could increase as much as 25% by 2015. Says Robert W. Esser, a director of CERA: "Peak Oil theory is garbage as far as we're concerned."

Let's take a closer look at the prospectivity, geology, economics, technology, reservoirs, hydrocarbons and logistics of the Lower Tertiary play in the Gulf of Mexico (henceforth the LTGOM).

Along with most who have read it, I was much impressed with the Chicago Tribune special segment on oil this weekend, and, if you have the time, would highly recommend that you both read the articles and watch the video (which takes about an hour). It does not have the fictionalized aspects that we have seen in other coverage from the BBC through Fox, and CNN about the problem, but rather, in a series of facts, lays out the situation. For those who don't have the opportunity, I thought I would give a summary, with some comments.