Scroll down for the 5:00p and 11:50p EDT updates.

Hurricane Dean became a Category 5 storm last night with winds reaching 165 mph and reaching a low pressure of 909 mb (as of 2:15a EDT; Katrina was 920 mb and Camille 909 mb). Landfall occurred early yesterday morning with a second landfall occurring some time today. This is an historic hurricane by any standard.

Why this matters: If there were Cat2 winds in that area, we could have been talking about around 2.5 million barrels per day of Mexico's supply capacity being shut in for a while, and some of that shut in for an extended amount of time. Around 1.5 mbpd of that capacity is exported to the US (of the 20.5 mbpd the US uses, and the 85mbpd the world uses, each day). There are also some questions about the resilience of refineries and flow lines in the area of the second landfall.

Update (Khebab, 11:50 EDT):

HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
...DEAN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING DEAN. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...

Cantarell and KMZ oil complex, 50-knots wind speed probabilities (NHC, forecast #35). Click to Enlarge.

Refinery position, 50-knots wind speed probabilities (NHC, forecast #35). Click to Enlarge.

More under the fold.