The Oil Drum: Europe

In the US, as one door has closed on subprime lending, another has opened on credit card debt. Actually living within one's means doesn't always seem to be an option, for some due to poverty and for others due to greed. Either way, the debt hole Americans (and Canadians, and the British) are collectively digging themselves into is getting deeper by the day, and they start young.

As losses mount, the role of mortgage fraud, by both borrowers and lenders, and also potential securities fraud, is being revealed. The litigation is only just beginning, but be prepared for a storm of legal action and recriminations. The ratings agencies are looking vulnerable to European action as their ratings enabled the sale of bad loans to European institutions, under conditions of conflict of interest.

Signs of stress are spilling over from the world of high finance to the real economy, where trucking and shipping are feeling the slowdown. Meanwhile Canada (several months behind the US) is still seeing a booming housing market, but for how long?

With frozen ABCP (asset-backed commercial paper) apparently about to spawn a litigation nightmare in Canada, huge bank writedowns in the US and Europe, bank closures, a lack of interbank lending, large-scale ARM readjustments, exploding credit card debt, a growing surge in foreclosures, and homebuilders further depressing real estate prices by selling off their inventory for whatever they can get, one could be forgiven for wondering why global stock markets seem so unconcerned.

Some aggressive speculators - cushioned by the moral hazard of central bank liquidity injections - may be prepared to throw caution to the wind in overextending the trend, but others are waiting in the wings, well placed, through bets in the derivatives market, to profit from its eventual reversal. In a market at the peak of a mania, where rampant speculation drives volatility for short-term gain, arguably the best place to be is out of the game.

Today's Round-Up focuses on disappearing acts. First, out of $12 billion in $100 bills that were physically flown from the New York Fed to Baghdad, $9 billion are missing. Second, more of life on earth is vanishing - the updated Red List of endangered species shows a large increase in species in critical condition.

In the world of finance, the next month is full of key moments, where debts will have to be covered, paper of various sorts matures, hedge funds will need to fork over lots of cash to investors who want out, and take-over deals will come under scrutiny. It looks like trillions of dollars could disappear from the markets before the end of the year.

And Greenspan had no idea. None. Now there's a mystery.

Billions over Baghdad

_{Illustration by John Blackford. By Peter van Agtmael/Polaris (desert), Konstantin Inozemtsev/Alamy (money)}

Between April 2003 and June 2004, $12 billion in U.S. currencymuch of it belonging to the Iraqi peoplewas shipped from the Federal Reserve to Baghdad, where it was dispensed by the Coalition Provisional Authority. Some of the cash went to pay for projects and keep ministries afloat, but, incredibly, at least $9 billion has gone missing, unaccounted for, in a frenzy of mismanagement and greed. Following a trail that leads from a safe in one of Saddam's palaces to a house near San Diego, to a P.O. box in the Bahamas, the authors discover just how little anyone cared about how the money was handled.

Hidden in plain sight, 10 miles west of Manhattan, amid a suburban community of middle-class homes and small businesses, stands a fortress-like building shielded by big trees and lush plantings behind an iron fence. The steel-gray structure, in East Rutherford, New Jersey, is all but invisible to the thousands of commuters who whiz by every day on Route 17. Even if they noticed it, they would scarcely guess that it is the largest repository of American currency in the world.

On Tuesday, June 22, 2004, a tractor-trailer truck turned off Route 17 onto Orchard Street, stopped at a guard station for clearance, and then entered the eroc compound. What happened next would have been the stuff of routineprocedures followed countless times. Inside an immense three-story cavern known as the currency vault, the truck's next cargo
was made ready for shipment.

With storage space to rival a Wal-Mart's, the currency vault can reportedly hold upwards of $60 billion in cash. Human beings don't perform many functions inside the vault, and few are allowed in; a robotic system, immune to human temptation, handles everything. On that Tuesday in June the machines were especially busy. Though accustomed to receiving and shipping large quantities of cash, the vault had never before processed a single order of this magnitude: $2.4 billion in $100 bills.

With arctic sovereignty increasingly in dispute due to potential oil and gas discoveries in a warmer world, the various interested parties seem almost desperate to stake their claim (and some are apparently more desperate than others). Meanwhile sovereignty debates continue further south at the Montebello SPP summit.

Danny Williams (one scary poker player), finally suceeds in securing a deal on the Hebron field after calling the oil companies' bluff. They said they had plenty of other opportunities if Newfoundland wouldn't play ball, but in a peak oil world Williams said they'd come back to the table, and they did.

As for the developing credit crunch, risk appears less and less contained over time, as international concern grows over the highy-rated 'assets' derived from the American mortgage market. Even money market funds are beginning to experience a flight to quality.

Russian arctic images 'from Titanic'

Russia faces embarrassment over its flag planting expedition to the North Pole after claims that state broadcasters borrowed scenes from the movie Titanic to "beef-up" footage. Television company Rossiya sent images of mini submarines descending to the ocean floor around the world in its report about the mission.

But a 13-year-old boy from Finland spotted the scenes in the national daily newspaper Ilta-Sanomat, and realised that they resembled images on his Titanic DVD.

He told the newspaper: "I checked it with my DVD and there it was right there in the beginning of the movie: exactly the same image of the submersibles approaching the ship."

Titanic, made by James Cameron and starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, opens with pictures of divers inspecting the 1912 shipwreck. The news programme is accused of merging real footage with the movie shots under the caption "northern Arctic Ocean", according to the Guardian.

It reported that Rossiya had refused to comment on the footage but said its Vesti news programme had originally been filmed using scale models in a studio.

Trust tax linked to private equity buyouts

The income trust structure was a major impediment to private equity firms buying up pieces of Corporate Canada, the Finance Department was told one day before Ottawa slapped a crippling tax on the sector.

"Private equity firms generally find it difficult to compete against the income trust alternative, said an Oct. 30, 2006, memo sent to Bob Hamilton, senior assistant deputy minister of tax policy at the Finance Department.

The memo was obtained by The Globe and Mail under access to information law.

For anyone at Finance who knew the trust tax was imminent, one conclusion that's easily drawn from the memo is that taxing trusts out of existence would likely usher in even more private equity buyouts by Canadian and foreign investors, which is what happened.

What Price Victory? (scroll down)

It’s reasonable to assume that, as professionals operating within a government department nominally charged with understanding affairs of finance, the folks working for Flaherty would have some rudimentary understanding of the way key players in the private space—private equity, for example—operate.

That is private-equity firms find undervalued, cash-generating businesses, strip them down and load them up with debt. Interest expenses basically wipe out taxes owed. That’s the nutshell.

What was that about “tax leakage”?

Either the professionals have no clue about their business, or they engineered the destruction of the trust sector. Secretive, incompetent and stupid is no way to run a government.

Trust bounty slips away

Most income trusts that have sold themselves -- since Ottawa decided to increase taxes on these investments to stem tax leakage -- have ended up in the hands of entities that don't pay Canadian taxes.

Twelve income trust deals with a total enterprise value of $7.3-billion, including yesterday's proposed sale of KCP Income Fund, are pending or have closed since the end of October. Nine of these transactions, worth $5.76-billion, are set to end up in the hands of foreign private equity shops, foreign corporations, Canadian private equity or Canadian pension funds -- all outfits that don't pay taxes into Ottawa's coffers. The findings were made by Chris Rankin, an analyst at Canaccord Adams....

...."We're seeing cash flow moving from taxable Canadian investors' hands to offshore investors and non-taxable hands," said Sandy McIntyre, a fund manager at Sentry Select Capital Corp.

LNG beats pipeline

Treating delta gas as an LNG opportunity is much more attractive than the Mackenzie pipeline option. Maybe the big giants behind the backers -- Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Royal Dutch Shell -- fear upsetting their global petroleum, natural gas and LNG apple carts by allowing their Canadian subsidiaries to start playing for the first time outside their Canadian sand boxes. It may be an intolerable horror for these multi-nationals to see delta LNG "washing up" at global LNG terminals, and competing with their own non-Canadian LNG delivered to U.S. and overseas LNG-terminals. Or might marketing delta gas globally snatch away the currently dominant fuel, gas, from the ravenous appetites of oilsands gas-guzzlers, forcing them to consider fuel options other than gas, and risking further delays, because they are also primary holders of Alberta oilsands leases.