Stories tagged with "discovery"

Predicting Future Supply from Undiscovered Oil

"Now what is the message there? The message is that there are known "knowns." There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that's basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns."
Donald Rumsfeld


The shock model, originally proposed by WebHubbleTelescope, is an attempt to link discovery data, reserves and production (see this post and this post for more details). Put simply, it is based on the observation that the oil production cycle results in a time shift and dispersion of the original discovered resources. In other words, there is a delay between first discovery and a mature oil production as well as a transformation of the original discovery curve imposed by the available production infrastructure. In its last report, the IEA is proposing the following forecast for supply for yet-to-be-found (YTF) oil fields:
 


Unfortunately, they offer few details on how this result was obtained except that they are forecasting 114 Giga-Barrels of new discoveries between 2008 and 2030 that once developed will bring around 44 Gb of new supply until 2030. I propose to see if this result could be derived from the shock model.

General Dispersive Discovery and The Laplace Transform


This is a guest post by WebHubbleTelescope.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.usI find it interesting that much of the mathematics of depletion modeling arises from considerations of basic time-series analysis coupled with useful transforms from signal processing. As a case in point, Khebab has postulated how the idea of loglet theory fits into multi-peak production profiles, which have a close relationship to the practical wavelet theory of signal processing. Similarly, the Oil Shock Model uses the convolution of simple data flow transfer functions that we can also express as cascading infinite impulse response filters acting on a stimulated discovery profile. This enables one to use basic time series techniques to potentially extrapolate future oil production levels, in particular using reserve growth models ala Khebab's HSM or the maturation phase DD. [1]

In keeping with this tradition, it turns out that the generalized Dispersive Discovery model fits into a classic canonical mathematical form that makes it very accessible to all sorts of additional time-series and spatial analysis. Actually the transform has existed for a very long while -- just ask the guy to the right.

Breaking News: Major Oil Deposit Found Beneath Manhattan


City Workers Stunned at Oil Gusher in Central Park

Some of the world's most valuable real estate just got a little more valuable to the rest of the world. Today, NYC Parks employees discovered oil seeping to surface through the grass at the Sheep Meadow in Central Park. Upon the discovery, Mayor Bloomberg and Parks Commissioner Adrian Benepe quickly approved some exploratory drilling and geological analysis. The results appear to be very encouraging for anyone worried about gas prices.