Professor Sir David King, Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Government since 2000 and former head of Cambridge University chemistry department has submitted a paper to the recently formed All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil (www.appgopo.org.uk).

I find this paper very disappointing, especially coming from someone of King’s calibre and position. It shows no original thought, preferring to cite the IEA, the USGS and historically static reserves-to-production ratios. It also shows no appreciation for flow rates or declining production from fields already in production, explains lack of new discoveries by low levels of exploration in the Middle East and attempts to square the development of unconventional oil sources with "radical reductions" in greenhouse gas emissions. King ends by saying hydrogen and fuel cell technologies have the potential to replace oil for transport. I'm left feeling King has presented a politician’s view rather than a that of a scientist.

The paper is probably the best indication we have to government's official position on the matter.

It is unclear how King's view as expressed in this paper relates to a conversation he had with David Strahan (author of The Last Oil Shock, link) in 2005 where King is reported to have said peak oil "in ten years or less".

Professor Sir David King, Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Government

His full submission is reproduced below the fold.