This is the third article in a 3-part series. (Here's a link to Part 1 and Part 2.)

We cannot know exactly what is ahead. In this part, we look at one possible future scenario. When we think of economic impacts, we usually think of the impacts that the squeeze of higher oil prices will bring--such as energy price inflation, food price inflation, and the need for more mass transit.

While these "squeeze" impacts are expected to occur, the real problem may be the discontinuities that occur, because of pressure on monetary systems and pressure on political systems. These pressures can cause unexpected results such as:

• Hyperinflation or deflation that indirectly results in a major decline in imports of all kinds (not just oil),

• Major changes in governments, and

• Fast declines in oil production in some oil exporting countries.

1. What impacts do you expect peak oil to have in the future?

This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises. To this end, we start out by exploring the concept of an ecological footprint, representing the amount of land that a person needs to produce everything that he or she consumes: food, clothing, energy, shelter, the tools that are needed to make the clothing, etc. and place it in relation with the human development index, a measure of the quality of life of an individual. We then relate the ecological footprint to the per capita energy consumption. This discussion serves to provide a quantitative understanding of the limited resources that are at our disposal.

The article continues by exploring the dangers and seductions of exponential growth, and uses a system dynamics approach to illustrate why we are moving at a rapid pace toward global collapse with our eyes wide shut.

The article ends by discussing what we would need to do in order to avoid the looming collapse.

For those who lament the loss of the small organic grocer, it must be realized that this slide into the corporate mainstream was inevitable for the organic and natural-foods market. There is, after all, money to be made. The prize to date: 2.5 percent of the nation's food market. Before you scoff, know that this seemingly trivial portion is worth around $15 billion dollars. Given that the organic and natural-foods industry now receives more attention by corporate marketers than ever before, this figure is certain to increase.

Where there was once a tightly controlled, well-run 10-acre organic farm, there is now a 1,000-acre piece of the mainstream agri-business puzzle. What was once a well-defined organic movement headed by responsible farmers working their land in harmony with nature is now a muddled, politically dubious cash cow awaiting slaughter.