Stories tagged with "colin campbell"

World Oil Exports [02] Libya



Where are Libya's oil exports headed?

Libya is a relatively new country, having declared independence in 1951. For the last 39 years, the country has been ruled by a single man, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi. Over the years, the identity of this leader and his exquisite sense of style have mingled with the identity of the country itself.

Libya joined OPEC right after its creation, and played a pivotal role in the 1973 oil crisis. For the next three decades, Libya endured tense (and sometimes belligerent) relations with western countries. In recent years, as international oil prices have been rising, Libya has been able to re-institute itself as a reliable partner to the West, taking full advantage of the wealth promised by its still considerable oil resources.

Report from 33d Intl. Geology Congress in Norway (By Charlie Hall)

Below is an email sent by Professor Charles Hall from SUNY-Syracuse detailing his recent trip to an international Geology conference in Norway. Though written for his friends and colleagues, I thought the details and insights he shared from his trip to Norway would be worth sharing with the TOD readership, particularly the comments on peak oil and climate change. Charlie also tells me he has a new paper published next week on EROI economics which I will format and post here.

Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production



This is a guest post by Jean Laherrère

Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates

In his recent post, Ace assumes ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) in Saudi Arabia to be 175 Gb (billion barrels). With 112 Gb already produced, that leaves only 63 Gb remaining. Colin Campbell (the founder of ASPO) has estimated total reserves for Saudi Arabia of 275 Gb (news letter 66), believed to be C+C+NGL (crude oil + condensate + natural gas liquids). There is an enormous discrepancy between this and Ace's analysis that ought to be explained.


This post is a brief summary of my views on Saudi reserves and production. My conclusion is that Saudi Arabia likely has at least 120 Gbs of remaining reserves (C+C+NGL) for a URR in excess of 240 Gbs (C+C+NGL). The remaining reserves according to this analysis are almost double those reported by Ace.

Lies, damned lies and BP statistics

I almost choked on my whisky when I heard on the UK national television news (13/06/07), a story about peak oil and questions asked about oil reserves figures quoted in the newly published BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

The news item was referring to a story in Thursday’s Independent (14/06/07) (a national UK newspaper) by Daniel Howden titled “Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years’ time.” Howden refers to the work of Chris Skrebowski (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre or ODAC) and Colin Campbell (Association for Peak Oil or ASPO). Kudos to Chris and to Colin for getting this news onto the front page.

There’s more…..

Note that the Indepent's server has been very slow on occasions. A pdf of Howden's article may be downloaded from the TOD server here

World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection

[editor's note, by Prof. Goose] This is a guest post by lads.

This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined has the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. This assessment is made by projecting in to the future fixed change rates that reflect current trends in liquids production and consumption in countries where presently the difference between the two is positive. The outcome of this assessment is worrisome.