The Oil Drum: Europe

This is a guest article by Jeremy Wakeford. Jeremy is an economist specializing in energy and sustainable development and is Research Director of ASPO South Africa.

South Africa has been in the news a lot recently because of its electricity supply problems throughout 2008. Most South African electricity comes from coal-fired power stations. Jeremy discusses the role of coal in South Africa's energy mix, long-term trends in production and consumption, and how underground coal gasification might help solve South Africa's energy problems.

Early Registration Savings End July 21st--and this time they're not going to extend the breaks after the deadline from what I hear. For Conference Agenda and Registration, go to
http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa4/

Don't miss the chance to join us in Sacramento in September and be a part of defining our energy future. Early Registration ends July 21st, Sunday sessions are likely to sell out and our two core days of plenary sessions always have limited seating capacity. Register today!

Under the fold, find the agenda and other highlights from the program. Come to Sacramento!

This is the talk I was honored to deliver to ASPO Italy on 3rd May 2008 at their annual conference in Turin. 24 slides below the fold plus narrative of what I said on the day. The narrative boxes are below the slides.

An Italian translation of this post is available here. Thanks to Maurizio Moretto for the translation. Thanks are also due to Jean Laherrere of ASPO France for providing his interpretations of Russian and North African gas supplies.

Questa è la relazione che ho avuto l'onore di presentare ad ASPO Italia, il 3 maggio 2008, in occasione della conferenza annuale tenutasi a Torino. Sono 24 slides integrate dai commenti (i riquadri sottostanti) che ho potuto esporre a voce durante la presentazione.

La versione inglese di questo post è disponibile qui. Un ringraziamento a Maurizio Moretto per la traduzione italiana. Un ringraziamento a Maurizio Moretto per la traduzione italiana. Ringraziamenti sono dovuti anche a Jean Laherrere di ASPO France per aver fornito il suo punto di vista sulle forniture di gas dalla Russia e dal Nordafrica.

The logo of the ASPOItaly-2 conference. It shows, superimposed to the classic ASPO peak, the mythical "post peak car", the battery powered, retrofitted Fiat 500

Conference report, many links and some pictures below the fold.

This is a guest post from Ugo Bardi and Marco Pagani. Ugo Bardi teaches chemistry at the University of Florence, Italy. He is the president of the Italian section of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) (www.aspoitalia.net). Marco Pagani is a physicist presently teaching and physics in secondary schools. He is a member of ASPO-Italy, a social and environmental activist, and the blogger of ecoalfabeta. (ecoalfabeta.blogosfere.it)

Abstract: We examined the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Of these, we found 11 cases where production has clearly peaked and is now declining. Several more may be peaking or be close to peaking. Fitting the production curve with a logistic function we see that, in most cases, the ultimate amount extrapolated from the fitting corresponds well to the amount obtained summing the cumulative production so far and the reserves estimated by the USGS. These results are a clear indication that the Hubbert model is valid for the worldwide production of minerals and not just for regional cases. It strongly supports the concept that “Peak oil” is just one of several cases of worldwide peaking and decline of a depletable resource. Many more mineral resources may peak worldwide and start their decline in the near future.

Register Today!

Conference Website — http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa3/

Direct to Registration — http://www.regonline.com/Checkin.asp?EventId=136392

Peak & Decline of World Oil Production

ASPO Week in Houston (Oct. 17-20) will consist of four days of high-level energy discussions,
including a pre-conference day and post-conference day, daytime and evening presentations, and
mix & meet receptions with speakers and sponsors. In addition, we've planned field trips to an
oil well drilling rig and Refinery Row, our nation's largest, on the Houston Ship Channel.

Under the fold, the conference newsletter.

During the final panel debate at ASPO 6 in Cork, former Minister of State for the Environment, Privy Counsellor and UK Member of Parliament Michael Meacher gave a rousing reply to a question from the floor. The other thing which I think is very important is vested interests. Who wants to keep the world the way it is? The oil industry; the chemical industry; the food industry; the car industry; the airline industry. These are very powerful. Who rules Britain? Not parliament.

Read the full text below the fold. Or download the 1 Mb wma audio file here. Thanks to Richard O'Rourke (ASPO Ireland) for sending me the audio file for this segment.

This is a guest post by Julian Jackson. Julian is a London based writer on technology and photography. He is currently forming an urban relocalisation group which has received funding and support for various projects to enhance the local environment. Here's a link to Julian's personal website.

A Report on the ASPO 6 Conference “Time to React” held in Cork, Ireland

It seems to me that we have reached several important tipping points this year in relation to Peak Oil, Climate Change and their impact on public consciousness. Peak oil is a geological tipping point, but I am more interested in psychological tipping points: when Peak Oil enters the general consciousness and stops being a dubious fringe pursuit. I think we may have reached that point, unfortunately at the same time as we are rolling over the peak “plateau”.

Panel session at ASPO6, Cork

Lord Ron Oxburgh, former non-executive chairman, Shell UK; chairman, House of Lords select committee on science and technology; honorary professor, Cambridge University

The morning began with a Keynote address by Lord Oxburgh former non-executive chairman of Shell, who spoke on “Out of Oil, into Hot Water.” He began by noting the economic difficulties that are coming as demand continues to exceed supply. We are not, after all, making oil any more. (Ed comment – well let’s not forget biofuels – and it turned out he did not). Because these problems will arise around the time of peaking they will likely be precursors to it, and these economic consequences will come sooner than expected.

The problems, however, are not that we are running out of oil, rather it is that we are running out of cheap oil. When oil fields are abandoned there may be 60% of the original oil (OOIP) that is left in the rock. At present this is just too expensive to extract, but it leaves us with a problem since most transportation requires a liquid fuel. To work effectively the vehicle must have a small, relatively light engine, together with a storage reservoir full of fuel, that must in turn, be as light, yet energy dense, as possible. The Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) has filled that need for the past century or so. The fuels that power it are among the most energy dense of those commonly available. That alone, however, is not the problem.